In their Second Edition of Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action, accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Sarah Miller Beebe and Randolph H. Pherson offer robust, class-tested cases studies of events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. Designed to give analysts-in-training an opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques and tackle real-life problems, each turnkey case delivers a captivating narrative, discussion questions, recommended readings, and a series of engaging analytic exercises.
Accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Beebe and Pherson have created a set of twelve robust, class-tested cases on events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. The case studies are designed to give analysts-intraining a hands-on opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques to tackle real-life problems. Each case delivers a compelling narrative and a set of step-by-step instructions that make teaching and learning as effective and efficient as possible. Key Features: - Questions at the start of each case challenge the student to think critically and help the students bring the case into focus; - Carefully crafted narratives provide the right amount of detail to give a realistic sense of the complexity and challenges of the case; - Recommended readings at the end of each narrative allow room for further research - Sections entitled "Structured Analytic Techniques in Action" frame the analytic tasks and provide step-by-step instructions for applying three to fi ve analytic techniques in a series of exercises for each case study; - Two hundred photos, maps, figures, tables, boxes, and technique templates support analysis and instruction; and - A matrix of the cases and techniques used in each cases augment the annotated table of contents and provide students and instructors an all-in-one view of the contents. To make the teaching of the cases as turn-key as possible, Beebe and Pherson have created a case-by-case guide, Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Instructor's Materials, that is free to all users as a downloadable PDF. Instructor's Materials includes solutions to all of the exercises, teaching tips, conclusions for each of the cases, and key takeaways that can be used to guide classroom discussion. Techniques covered include: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Deception Detection The Decision Matrix Devil's Advocacy Force Field Analysis Indicators Indicators Validator Key Assumptions Check Mind Maps Multiple Hypothesis Generation Multiple Scenarios Generation Outside-In Thinking The Pre-Mortem Analysis Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes Quadrant Crunching Red Hat Analysis Simple Scenarios Starbursting Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats Structured Brainstorming Structured Self-Critique Timelines and Chronologies
This book of cases will contain 12 cases of approx 24pp each. It is part of a larger case archive of (initally) about 20 cases. 12 cases will be in the book; all 20 will be online. See related project: Cases in Intelligence: Online Case Archive
In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.
Accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Beebe and Pherson have created a set of twelve robust, class-tested cases on events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. The case studies are designed to give analysts-intraining a hands-on opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques to tackle real-life problems. Each case delivers a compelling narrative and a set of step-by-step instructions that make teaching and learning as effective and efficient as possible. Key Features: - Questions at the start of each case challenge the student to think critically and help the students bring the case into focus; - Carefully crafted narratives provide the right amount of detail to give a realistic sense of the complexity and challenges of the case; - Recommended readings at the end of each narrative allow room for further research - Sections entitled "Structured Analytic Techniques in Action" frame the analytic tasks and provide step-by-step instructions for applying three to fi ve analytic techniques in a series of exercises for each case study; - Two hundred photos, maps, figures, tables, boxes, and technique templates support analysis and instruction; and - A matrix of the cases and techniques used in each cases augment the annotated table of contents and provide students and instructors an all-in-one view of the contents.
This book on intelligence analysis written by intelligence expert Dr. Stephen Marrin argues that scholarship can play a valuable role in improving intelligence analysis. Improving intelligence analysis requires bridging the gap between scholarship and practice. Compared to the more established academic disciplines of political science and international relations, intelligence studies scholarship is generally quite relevant to practice. Yet a substantial gap exists nonetheless. Even though there are many intelligence analysts, very few of them are aware of the various writings on intelligence analysis which could help them improve their own processes and products. If the gap between scholarship and practice were to be bridged, practitioners would be able to access and exploit the literature in order to acquire new ways to think about, frame, conceptualize, and improve the analytic process and the resulting product. This volume contributes to the broader discussion regarding mechanisms and methods for improving intelligence analysis processes and products. It synthesizes these articles into a coherent whole, linking them together through common themes, and emphasizes the broader vision of intelligence analysis in the introduction and conclusion chapters. The book will be of great interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, US national security, US foreign policy, security studies and political science in general,as well as professional intelligence analysts and managers.
With the exponential growth in the intelligence field in the last few years, the profession has grown much larger and its mission more complex. Government and private sector security agencies have recruited intelligence analysts to process what has become a voluminous amount of raw information flowing into these agencies' data collection systems. Unfortunately, there is an unmet need for analysts who are able to process these data. For this reason there are a growing number of colleges and universities that offer intelligence training so that candidates for analyst positions can take-up their duties without protracted on-the-job instruction. Handbook of Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis offers students in such courses a way of gaining the analytic skills essential to undertake intelligence work. This book acquaints students and analysts with how intelligence fits into the larger research framework. It covers not only the essentials of applied research but also explains the function, structure, and operational methods specifically involved in intelligence work. It looks at how analysts work with classified information in a security conscious environment, as well as obtaining data via covert methods. Students are left with little doubt about what intelligence is and how it is developed using scientific methods of inquiry.
The Art of Intelligence
Author: William J. Lahneman, Rubén Arcos
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
This is the first textbook to offer in one volume original simulations, exercises, and games designed by academics and intelligence professionals from several countries. These innovative methods are meant to enhance the learning experience and provide an international perspective to the topics and approaches discussed in class. Intelligence simulations and games are presented in ready-to-run formats, from easy instructions to result-recordings matrices, to minimize preparation time for both instructors and students. Exercises, such as cyber-attack simulations, information sharing, ethical scenarios, and more, expose the student to the many subtle aspects of the intelligence enterprise through active role-playing in simulations and game exercises. The cases cover a wide range of key analytical issues and contexts with an international focus for an innovative text that will suit intelligence training courses at all levels.
Contents: (1) How Do People Reason?; (2) What is Critical Thinking?; (3) What Can Be Learned from the Past?: Thinking Critically about Cuba: Deploying the Missiles; Assessing the Implications; Between Dogmatism and Refutation; Lacking: Disconfirmation; The Roles of Critical Thinking in the Cuban Crisis; Winners and Losers: The Crisis in Context; Ten Years Later, They Meet Again; Judgment; (4) How Can Intelligence Analysts Employ Critical Thinking?; (5) How Can Intelligence Analysts be Taught to Think Critically?; (6) How Does Critical Thinking Transform?; (7) What Other Points of View Exist?; (8) What Does the Future Hold?; (9) NSA¿s Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus. Charts and tables.
The text explains the model-based method of intelligence analysis that represents the analyst’s mental models of a subject as well as the analyst’s reasoning process. It includes dynamic simulations and interactive analytic games, case studies that illustrate a wide range of intelligence problems, and a recommended curriculum for technical analysts.
Analytic Writing Guide
Author: Louis M. Kaiser, Randolph H. Pherson
This book is a user's guide for writing papers, short memos, and emails when the objective is to inform a busy reader preoccupied with other tasks. The objective is to make sure that all the information needed to understand the main points is in the paper and in the right order, minimizing or eliminating extraneous information and ideas, and resolving inconsistencies. The guide offers a mix of strategic and tactical advice, ranging from how to get started to how to order information in a paragraph. It is not a book about grammar; nor is it a treatise on critical thinking. Grammar and style are undeniably important, but elegantly written sentences will fail to communicate your conclusions if the flow of ideas and information is flawed. If the flow of ideas and information is muddled, your reader will seldom read the paper in its entirety. The primary target audiences for the Guide are policymakers, intelligence analysts, law enforcement officers, and the business world, but the principles underlying the teaching points are applicable to anyone seeking to communicate ideas more effectively--including high school and university students.
This edited volume argues that producers of analysis need to shift from producing static, narrative products to much more dynamic, digitally-based platforms in order to remain competitive and relevant.
Author: Roger Z. George, James B. Bruce
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
Analyzing Intelligence, now in a revised and extensively updated second edition, assesses the state of the profession of intelligence analysis from the practitioners point of view. The contributors—most of whom have held senior positions in the US intelligence community—review the evolution of the field, the rise of new challenges, pitfalls in analysis, and the lessons from new training and techniques designed to deal with 21st century national security problems. This second edition updates this indispensable book with new chapters that highlight advances in applying more analytic rigor to analysis, along with expertise-building, training, and professional development. New chapters by practitioners broaden the original volume’s discussion of the analyst-policymaker relationship by addressing analytic support to the military customer as well as by demonstrating how structured analysis can benefit military commanders on the battlefield. Analyzing Intelligence is written for national security practitioners such as producers and users of intelligence, as well as for scholars and students seeking to understand the nature and role of intelligence analysis, its strengths and weaknesses, and steps that can improve it and lead it to a more recognizable profession. The most comprehensive and up-to-date volume on professional intelligence analysis as practiced in the US Government, Analyzing Intelligence is essential reading for practitioners and users of intelligence analysis, as well as for students and scholars in security studies and related fields.
Author: Roger Z. George, James B. Bruce
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
Drawing on the individual and collective experience of recognized intelligence experts and scholars in the field, Analyzing Intelligence provides the first comprehensive assessment of the state of intelligence analysis since 9/11. Its in-depth and balanced evaluation of more than fifty years of U.S. analysis includes a critique of why it has under-performed at times. It provides insights regarding the enduring obstacles as well as new challenges of analysis in the post-9/11 world, and suggests innovative ideas for improved analytical methods, training, and structured approaches. The book's six sections present a coherent plan for improving analysis. Early chapters examine how intelligence analysis has evolved since its origins in the mid-20th century, focusing on traditions, culture, successes, and failures. The middle sections examine how analysis supports the most senior national security and military policymakers and strategists, and how analysts must deal with the perennial challenges of collection, politicization, analytical bias, knowledge building and denial and deception. The final sections of the book propose new ways to address enduring issues in warning analysis, methodology (or "analytical tradecraft") and emerging analytic issues like homeland defense. The book suggests new forms of analytic collaboration in a global intelligence environment, and imperatives for the development of a new profession of intelligence analysis. Analyzing Intelligence is written for the national security expert who needs to understand the role of intelligence and its strengths and weaknesses. Practicing and future analysts will also find that its attention to the enduring challenges provides useful lessons-learned to guide their own efforts. The innovations section will provoke senior intelligence managers to consider major changes in the way analysis is currently organized and conducted, and the way that analysts are trained and perform.
This book critically analyses the concept of the intelligence cycle, highlighting the nature and extent of its limitations and proposing alternative ways of conceptualising the intelligence process. The concept of the intelligence cycle has been central to the study of intelligence. As Intelligence Studies has established itself as a distinctive branch of Political Science, it has generated its own foundational literature, within which the intelligence cycle has constituted a vital thread - one running through all social-science approaches to the study of intelligence and constituting a staple of professional training courses. However, there is a growing acceptance that the concept neither accurately reflects the intelligence process nor accommodates important elements of it, such as covert action, counter-intelligence and oversight. Bringing together key authors in the field, the book considers these questions across a number of contexts: in relation to intelligence as a general concept, military intelligence, corporate/private sector intelligence and policing and criminal intelligence. A number of the contributions also go beyond discussion of the limitations of the cycle concept to propose alternative conceptualisations of the intelligence process. What emerges is a plurality of approaches that seek to advance the debate and, as a consequence, Intelligence Studies itself. This book will be of great interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, criminology and policing, security studies and IR in general, as well as to practitioners in the field.